Market Reactions to Presidential Decisions (2017 to 2026)
Event-level market reactions during both Trump presidencies: Dow Jones Industrial Average, U.S. Dollar Index, and 10-year Treasury yield.
Last updated
What does this reference page cover?
This page records market moves tied to major presidential actions in the first term (2017 to 2021) and the second term (2025 onward), using the same indices and before/after method. For second-term quarter-end snapshots, see the Markets section on the home page.
Figures show session or next-session changes around each event date. Percent changes are rounded; Treasury moves are in basis points (bp).
How did markets react to key first-term decisions?
Financial markets responded to major Trump administration actions with measurable shifts in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and the 10-year Treasury yield. The table lists before-and-after levels and percent changes for five documented events.
| Date | Event | Stock Market (Dow) | Change | Dollar Index | Change | 10Y Treasury Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2017 | Inauguration | 19,827.25 → 20,093.78 | +1.34% | 101.18 → 100.74 | −0.44% | 2.48% → 2.46% | −2 bp |
| Jan 23, 2017 | TPP Withdrawal | 19,827.25 → 19,799.85 | −0.14% | 100.74 → 100.23 | −0.51% | 2.46% → 2.41% | −5 bp |
| Dec 22, 2017 | Tax Cuts and Jobs Act | 24,782.29 → 25,075.13 | +1.18% | 93.35 → 92.83 | −0.56% | 2.48% → 2.58% | +10 bp |
| May 8, 2018 | Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal | 24,357.32 → 24,542.54 | +0.76% | 92.57 → 93.24 | +0.72% | 2.95% → 3.01% | +6 bp |
| Jan 15, 2020 | Phase One Trade Deal with China | 28,939.67 → 29,348.10 | +1.41% | 97.08 → 97.54 | +0.47% | 1.78% → 1.84% | +6 bp |
Inauguration, Dow
+1.34%
Tax Cuts, Dow
+1.18%
China Trade Deal, Dow
+1.41%
TPP Withdrawal, Dow
−0.14%
How did markets react to key second-term decisions?
The largest moves of the second term so far came from tariffs and the Iran conflict. The two sessions after the April 2, 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs were the largest two-day loss of U.S. market value on record, roughly $6.6 trillion, and the April 9 pause produced the Dow's best session since March 2020. The table uses the same three benchmarks as the first-term table above.
| Date | Event and window | Stock Market (Dow) | Change | Dollar Index | Change | 10Y Treasury Yield | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | Second Inauguration Jan 17 to Jan 21 (markets closed Jan 20) |
43,487.83 → 44,025.81 | +1.24% | 109.35 → 108.06 | −1.18% | 4.61% → 4.57% | −4 bp |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Canada, Mexico and China tariff orders Jan 31 to Feb 3 (signed Saturday) |
44,544.66 → 44,421.91 | −0.28% | 108.37 → 108.99 | +0.57% | 4.58% → 4.54% | −4 bp |
| Apr 2, 2025 | "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs Apr 2 to Apr 4 (announced after the close) |
42,225.32 → 38,314.86 | −9.26% | 103.81 → 103.02 | −0.76% | 4.20% → 4.01% | −19 bp |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 90-day tariff pause Apr 8 to Apr 9 |
37,645.59 → 40,608.45 | +7.87% | 102.96 → 102.90 | −0.06% | 4.26% → 4.34% | +8 bp |
| May 12, 2025 | U.S.-China Geneva de-escalation May 9 to May 12 |
41,249.38 → 42,410.10 | +2.81% | 100.34 → 101.79 | +1.45% | 4.37% → 4.45% | +8 bp |
| Jul 4, 2025 | One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed Jul 3 to Jul 7 (markets closed Jul 4) |
44,828.53 → 44,406.36 | −0.94% | 97.18 → 97.48 | +0.31% | 4.35% → 4.40% | +5 bp |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA tariffs Feb 19 to Feb 20 |
49,395.16 → 49,625.97 | +0.47% | 97.93 → 97.80 | −0.13% | 4.08% → 4.08% | 0 bp |
| Feb 28, 2026 | U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran Feb 27 to Mar 27 (one-month window) |
48,977.92 → 45,166.64 | −7.78% | 97.61 → 100.15 | +2.60% | 3.97% → 4.44% | +47 bp |
| Apr 8, 2026 | U.S.-Iran ceasefire Apr 7 to Apr 8 |
46,584.46 → 47,909.92 | +2.85% | 99.64 → 99.13 | −0.51% | 4.33% → 4.29% | −4 bp |
What were markets reacting to?
- Feb 1, 2025: 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China. The Dow fell at the Monday open, then recovered most of the loss once the North American tariffs were paused for 30 days.
- Apr 9, 2025: The pause was posted to Truth Social at 1:18 p.m. ET. The 10-year yield still rose more than 50 basis points that week.
- May 12, 2025: A joint statement cut U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods to 10%.
- Feb 20, 2026: A 6 to 3 ruling held that the emergency powers act does not authorize tariffs. The Dow moved less than half a percent.
- Feb 28, 2026: This row uses a one-month window, not a single session, to show the drawdown as oil prices lifted inflation expectations.
- Apr 8, 2026: A two-week ceasefire. Oil had its largest one-day drop since 2020 and the Dow rose about 1,300 points.
Sources: Dow closing levels via FRED DJIA; dollar index: ICE U.S. Dollar Index; 10-year yield via FRED DGS10. Ceasefire session: AOL / Yahoo Finance. Where an announcement came on a weekend, holiday or after the close, the "before" figure is the last close ahead of it.
How was this data compiled?
Each row pairs a documented policy event with market levels immediately before and after the event window, using the same three benchmarks as the original chronicle build:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: closing levels (S&P Dow Jones Indices)
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): ICE U.S. Dollar Index
- 10-year Treasury yield: U.S. Treasury constant maturity, via FRED DGS10
Related context: First presidency timeline (2017–2021) · Trade history
Where are current second-term market figures?
Quarter-end market summaries for Q2 2025 through Q1 2026 (second Trump term) are on the home page Markets section, using the same index definitions and static HTML format for Cloudflare Pages.